Campaign Against Kavanaugh is Already Lost

Kavanaugh-meta

By Todd May (July 12, 2018)

Here’s something I don’t understand: a campaign against Kavanaugh. I get that Democrats are supposed to vote against him. But a real campaign against him? That’s where our energy is supposed to go? I think folks who want this don’t realize that they’re getting played. Kavanaugh is conservative Republican establishment. Is he awful? Yes, he’s awful. But suppose the forces against him prevail and he isn’t confirmed. Then Trump nominates somebody worse and your capital is already spent opposing this guy. That’s the strategy: put a more “reasonable” guy up first and either force an acceptance of him or a rejection of him that gives Trump the opening to nominate someone worse who will be confirmed.

You’ll never get the Senate to reject two people in a row. It’s not going to happen. There is so much that requires our energy right in through here. Don’t waste your time on a battle you can’t win.

Some people will counter with the Bork nomination. But Bork was an outlier to begin with. Instead, the “moderate,” Kennedy was nominated and confirmed. But Trump is not making the same mistake. Reject Kavanaugh, and the next one, who will probably be an outlier, will get confirmed.

Other people will counter with the idea that the Senate may turn Democratic in November. Maybe, but I wouldn’t count on it. And two things to keep in mind: rejecting Kavanaugh will bring out a lot of Republican voters in November and there are Democratic Senators in red states are not going to vote against Trump’s nominee twice.

We’ve lost this one. Let’s put our energy toward something we can win. It’s not as though we’re casting about to find struggles worth engaging in.

todd

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